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06 February 2023, Monday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #429
War in Ukraine: Day 346 & 347
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 05 February, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and German Chancellor published their remarks on usage of weapons supplied by the West. According to Scholz: “There is a consensus on this point. This joint approach prevents an escalation of the war.” Since Germany agreeing to provide Ukraine battle tanks, the response from Russia has been critical on controlling the west aggression. Scholz reiterated that military and humanitarian support to Ukraine has been given only upon Russia violating “European peace framework.”
On 05 February, Ukraine’s spokesperson David Arakhamia announced the replacement of Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov due to a corruption scandal. The Head of the Military Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov would be the new replacement.
On 05 February, Luhansk region Governor Serhiy Haidai reported on the ground situation in Bilohorivka village. He said that Ukraine forces maintains control and denied the Russian claims of capturing the area. Haidai added that, the attack in the zone had increased but have been countered by Ukraine. In response Russia news agency TASS said that Russia has killed 18 Ukrainian soldiers in Kherson area. The Ukraine military has also claimed victory against an offensive launched by Russia in Bakhmut.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 04 February, RT reported on the US transfer of the “seized Russian assets” to Ukraine. It stated that the seized assets during the first set of sanctions would be sent to Ukraine to help in reconstruction. The assets amount to USD 5.4 million belongs to a Russian businessman Konstantin Malofeyev.
On 04 February, RT reported on Germany’s Public Prosecutor General Peter Frank comments on Nord Stream 1 and 2 leaks. Frank stated that there has been no evidence proving Russia to have involved in damage to the pipeline in the investigation done till now. He said: “…that there had been a foreign sabotage act [in this case], has so far not been substantiated.”
On 04 February, RT reported on a Wall Street Journal post on how China’s defence industry continues to provide necessary components for Russia’s military use. According to the report, the US has been successful in cutting down such shipments to Russia through Turkey and UAE. In a report by C4ADS (US based think-tank) found that 84,000 shipments had been sent to Russia since the war began. China’s defence supply is likely to be discussed during the Secretary of State Antony Blinken visit to China.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 05 February, the UK Ministry of Defence in its intelligence update reported that Russia continues to make small progress to surround Bakhmut town and capture it. On the same UK’s Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said: “Giving the Ukrainians the tools they need” would be the quickest way to achieve peace.
On 04 February, Deutsche Welle reported on Germany’s hold on evidence over war crimes in Ukraine. The report includes the “mass killing in Bucha,” and attacks on Ukraine’s civil infrastructure. According to Federal Prosecutor General Peter Frank, the German prosecutors seem to have evidence in the “three-digit range” of the committed crimes which began collecting from March 2022.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war
On 05 February, Deutsche Welle reported on International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol statement on the impact on EU’s price cap on Russia. IEA predicted the Russian exports to have reduced by 30 per cent or USD eight billion since last January.
On 03 February, Reuters reported on Indian refiners shift from US dollars to UAE dirhams. Due to the western sanctions, Indian refiners have decided to escape the EU’s energy price cap and as an alternative the efforts towards de-dollarisation has been taken. One of India’s top performing banks, the State Bank of India is currently clearing the dirham payments and have asked the refiners who pay in dollars to “provide a breakdown” of different cost such as oil, freight, and insurance to push it as vet trade and escape price cap.
References
“US announces first transfer of seized Russian assets to Kiev,” RT, 04 February 2023
“No evidence Russia linked to Nord Stream sabotage – German prosecutor,” RT, 04 February 2023
“China helping Russia to obtain key technology – media,” RT, 04 February 2023
“Exclusive: Indian refiners pay traders in dirhams for Russian oil,” Reuters, 04 February 2023
“Ukraine updates: US sends seized Russian cash to aid Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 04 February 2023
“Ukraine updates: Kyiv expected to replace defense minister,” Deutsche Welle, 04 February 2023
IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh
CYPRUS
Run-off elections to be held after presidential candidates fail to get majority
On 05 February, Deutsche Welle reported that Cyprus will be voting in the run-off elections on 12 February after candidates fail to get a 50 per cent majority in the first round of presidential elections. The first round concluded with former Foreign Minister Nikos Christodoulides in the lead with 32 per cent of the total votes followed by Andreas Mavroyiannis with 29.6 per cent votes. The Presidential elections are being held in the Greek Cypriot part of Cyprus. (“Cyprus: Presidential election headed to a run-off,” Deutsche Welle, 05 February 2023)
FRANCE
Economic Minister proposed for more transparency over US subsidies
On 04 February, Politico reported French Economic Minister Bruno Le Marie request for “Transparency” on green subsidies that is worth for the USD 369 billion. According to Le Marie: “…we cooperate with allies to have transparency about the amount of subsidies and tax credits that will be granted… this allows you to guarantee fair competition conditions.” In response to the US “subsidy splash,” EU proposed the Green Deal Industrial Plan to make it easy for sustainable companies to direct cash in clean-tech industries. (Camille Gijs, “Paris Berlin to call for subsidy transparency during US trip,” Politico, 04 February 2023.)
RUSSIA
ROSCOSMOS launched Proton-M and plans to launch Luch-5 relay satellites in march.
On 05 February, The Russian space agency Roscosmos announced the launch of Proton- M rocket from Kazakhstan into orbit carrying the meteorological satellite called Elektro-L. Russia also plans to launch the Luch-5 relay satellite in march. The launch being the first one since the war began, the Proton M vehicle will deliver satellite into the orbit. This is to help in exchange of information between spacecraft, other near vehicles and ground station on earth. The Lurelay currently consists of three satellites called Luch-5A, Luch-5B and Luch 5V deployed in 2011-2014. (“Russia's Proton-M Rocket Carrying Meteorological Satellite Launched Into Orbit: Roscosmos, Sputnik, 05 February 2023; Russia to Launch Luch-5 Relay Satellite in March,” Sputnik, 05 February 2023)
THE UK
Nearly half a million teachers to take part in ‘Walkout Wednesday’ protests
On 01 February, about 200,000 teachers, border force workers, university staff, train drivers, and civil servants took part in a “coordinated day of industrial action” which brought various parts of the country to an effective halt. This comes as part of the “Walkout Wednesday” action against the government, where multiple unions of various sectors of the country ramped up their campaign for better and higher pay rises from the government. The recent strike, however, is the largest shutdown by workers in the last three decades and included nearly 600 military personnel being drafted into train stations and airports to “support public services.” The government said that the “level” of strike action would “make it very difficult” for the public “trying to go about their daily lives” and said that the workers would find it “challenging” because of the suspension of health services in the country. (Kate Devlin and Adam Forrest “School’s out: 200,000 teachers to strike in biggest shutdown for three decades,” The Independent.co.uk, 01 February 2023)
REGIONAL
The Council of EU, G7 and Australia agree on energy price cap against Russia’s crude oil
On 06 February, the EU council adopted to two energy price caps targeting Russia’s crude oil and diesel exports. The first price cap on petroleum products is set at USD 45 per barrel which is further reduced from the previous price cap of USD 60 per barrel. While the second price cap was set on the diesel a traded premium to crude at USD 100 per barrel. Previously those export through maritime transport and those who provided technical and financial assistance were exempted are not applicable to follow the price cap regulation. The rule will come into force from 05 February 2023. (“EU agrees on level of price caps for Russian petroleum products,” Council of European Union, 04 February 2023)
Eight people were killed due to a series of avalanches in the Alps
On 05 January, Austrian authorities reported that eight people were killed over the weekend due to the series of avalanches in the Alps. Additionally, on 04 January, Swiss authorities reported two deaths caused by the Alps located in the Graubünden canton. The avalanches were reportedly caused by heavy snowfall and high winds. Alpine regions of Western Austria especially Tyrol are under a level 4 avalanche warning. On 04 January, Tyrol experienced around 30 avalanches which led to several missing. Additionally, rescue missions have been hindered by weather conditions and poor visibility. Swiss and Austrian authorities have issued warnings to tourists, winter sports athletes and skiers urging them to avoid the slopes. (“Austria and Switzerland: Five dead in avalanches in Alps,” Deutsche Welle, 04 February 2023; “More killed by avalanches in Austrian Alps,” Deutsche Welle, 05 February 2023)
ENERGY
Norwegian offshore wind projects to kickstart with fresh partnerships with Denmark
On 05 February, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) said that they would collaborate with NorSea and Parkwind in a partnership “dedicated” to progressing offshore wind projects in Norway. This collaboration would entail CIP and the two companies to “further” tighten their Utsira Nord tender and would allow additional knowledge of offshore maritime operations and sustainable energy project development and implementation in Norway and the rest of the world. This comes as Norway has announced a clear target of reaching net zero carbon by 2050 and has assured the establishment of 30 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2040 and said that the first tender of 2023 would involve the Utsira Nord area which will offer a primary capacity of 1.5 gigawatts of wind power. The Norwegian government said that they would develop a “competitive” Norwegian supplier base, technology network and industry “around floating offshore wind.” (“New partnership aims to take Norwegian offshore wind to the next level,” Port News, 05 February 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
France, UAE and India launch a trilateral initiative on climate cooperation
On 04 February, France, India and the UAE launched a trilateral initiative on climate cooperation where the three countries will focus on projects in the energy sector, climate change and biodiversity. The projects under the initiative will largely focus on the Indian Ocean region and the three countries look to expand cooperation in launching sustainable projects. The three countries also reiterated their commitment to the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and its goals. The three also outlined their commitment to continued cooperation in combating diseases and pandemics and increasing military cooperation as well. (“France, India, UAE agree on climate cooperation,” Deutsche Welle, 04 February 2023)